Covid19 Singapore - 4 possible waves of infection



COVID19 first arrived in Singapore on Jan 19



It has been more than a month since COVID 19 hits town and so far we have experienced 2 waves of infection


Wave 1: Imported Cases from Wuhan / China

Wave 1 begins with the imported cases from Wuhan, the first (Case 8 and 9) had arrived in Singapore on 19 Jan.
The last one (Case 87) to arrive would be on Feb 9 from the Evacuation flight from Wuhan where it carried Singaporeans and their family members.

Wave 1 seemed to have stabilised as there are no new imported cases reported since


For the full case history, refer to this post.


Wave 2: Local Cases - Mostly Traceable sources

The first local transmission confirmed was on Feb 4. This belongs to the Yong Thai Hang Cluster. The cluster is suspected to be infected by a tourist group from Wuhan that had visited the premises in late January.

Up to 24 Feb, there are a total of 65 cases. Most of the cases are trace to a known source. There are a handful of untraceable sources that includes taxi drivers, private hire drivers and a dengue patient

For the past week, the confirmed numbers had dwindled to 1-4 cases daily with most associated with an existing cluster. There was 0 confirmed case reported on Sunday 23rd, making a possible turn of event.

However, it is not time to get complacent. You probably need at least 2 weeks of 0 cases , due to the incubation period of the virus, to confirm wave 2 is over.

Wave 3: Imported Cases from Overseas ex China

As Singapore continues to see a reduced number of confirmed cases, the same cannot be same in other countries. South Korea has seen a spike in numbers from below 100 to 763 in less than a week. Japan and Italy have also seen it's number rise. Iran has half the cases in Singapore but already 8 had died from the virus. Indonesia reported 0 cases but has 2 possible infections from travellers who caught COVID19 since returning from travels.

Given the rise of the outbreak in various countries, if it is not controlled, there is a risk of such cases being imported to Singapore in due course. With business and tourist travels to and from these countries, there is a possibility that the Wave 3 would be from such countries other than China. As the number of countries increases, it will be unavoidable as a travel ban to all countries might not be feasible.


Wave 4: Community Spread

With the possible increase in cases especially those from unknown sources, there will be a wave 4. This would be the community spread that the nation would dread.

Would Wave 3 and Wave 4 occur in the future?

The robust tackling of COVID19 in Singapore had shown our nation's capability in managing and containing the virus. If everyone does their part (ie stay at home if you are sick and see a doctor if you have a respiratory issue), we might be able to overcome COVID19.

For now, a battle may be won. The war is just starting.









No comments:

Post a comment