Leak PSLE T Scores? An analysis of PSLE T scores




PSLE is over and the results are out.

What's next?

The one thing that is keeping PSLE parents up from now till Dec 20th is the release of Secondary School Posting. The results of the posting will be made available via SMS to parents on that date.



Anxious parents are scouring the net to find any sort of indication of the chances of the child getting into the school of their choice. There is even a table that is assumed to be the leak PSLE T Score distribution for 2019 appearing on a popular school forum.

Is this real?

Since we cannot vouch for the authenticity, it would be unwise to take the data provided as facts.
There were some doubts on the table since the cut off points were truncated at 230+. The final tally also does not match the MOE official press release number of PSLE students

2018 39672 vs 40000
2019 39622 vs 40825

Base on verified facts, it can be concluded that the numbers obtained might be a projection of the T-scores base on the Edusave Scholarship for Independent School (ESIS)  cutoff of 261 and top 10% cutoff at 250. That said, the top 10% of the scores would be somewhat accurate while the remaining scores are probably a projection base on last year's results.

Analysis * (Base on the reported leak)

The top 3 % (261) have done pretty well compared to last year.
This could be the result of the tougher paper this year especially the Maths paper. Those that had the difficult questions correct would probably score must higher. The higher number of students above 265 would attest to that.

Cut off Pont (COP) for top 5 schools might inch up.



With the higher T scores in the upper range, the COP for the top 5 schools would most likely inch higher for this year. Expect to see the COP  of schools like Raffles Girls, Hwa Chong, Nanyang Girls, RI to be closer to 260 and above. It will be competitive for the top tier schools this year.


COP for schools with range of 230-240 might come down



Last year (2018) COP raised significantly for most schools. It was not uncommon to see swings from 3-8 points for the schools. It was concluded that the 2018 papers were relatively easy, thus allowing students to score higher. As seen in the 2018 results 50 % of the cohort are within the 230-249 range with over 60% of the cohort scoring above 230, making it very competitive to get into schools that fall within the range.

As for 2019, only 31 % falls within the 230-249 with 42% of the cohort making the cut above 230. If the numbers are correct, the COP should fall across the board for schools with COP below 250. It may even fall to 2017 level if the 2019 distribution is similar to 2017.

You may get into your 'dream' school
For those whose T Score is below 245 and took a gamble and chose schools with COP +2/3 as their first choice, they have a decent shot of getting in the school of their choice.
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As the analysis was based on the reported 'leak' scores, it may not be reflective of the actual results. The best way to find out would be to wait till 20th Dec for that SMS on the phone.


If you would like to see what is the probability of getting in the school of your choice. This link would be interesting.
https://www.sgdatascience.com/#/sec-posting

In the meantime, sleep well parents. What's done in done and all we can do now is to enjoy the holidays while it last!

Disclosure
The above chart may not be a  representative of the real distribution. For the latest scores and distribution, do refer to MOE.


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