GE2020 : Top Five Key Battlegrounds




Nomination day is done and dusted.

Now comes the real battle.

As the dust settles, there are a few notable battlegrounds. Despite popular beliefs, the election may not necessarily be close but certain match up will give the incumbents a run for the money. We rub our crystal ball to give you some predictions of what is to come.

Disclaimer
Before we head any further, we would like to state that we are apolitical. After all, this is a lifestyle portal not a political one. This post is not meant to influence your vote. Rather like the posts we did before, it is meant to be informative.

GRC

Aljunied GRC
2015 GE: WP 50.95% 

WP:  WP Chief Pritam Singh, party chair Sylvia Lim, Vice-Chair Faisal Manap, Former NCMP Mr Leon Perere and Mr Gerald Giam

PAP: Mr Chua Eng Leong, Mr Victor Lye, Mr Shamsul Kamar, newcomers Ms Chan Hui Yuh and Mr Alex Yeo

What to look out for

The Low Down 
This was a tough battleground for both PAP and WP in 2015. Helmed by Mr Low Thia Khiang, the then Secretary-General of WP, it managed to hold on to Aljunied for a second straight term. The margins had eroded from 54 to 50.95% in the last election. This time around, Mr Low will not be contesting in the GRC as he steps down from election. The baton has been passed to the current WP Sec-Gen Pritam Singh to lead the line. WP will bring its 'A' Team to Aljunied to seek re-election

New and Old 
PAP will be fielding a mix of newcomers and veterans who had contested in Aljunied in 2015

Straight up popularity contest 
PAP is not fielding a minister to strengthen the team. Thus this would be a straight fight to determine the popularity of the renewed WP team.


Without Mr Low, it is unsure if this new look WP can garner the same level of support. The massive rally of heydays will also not be seen in this election. This moral booster may hinder their chance.

Possible outcome: Tough Call

West Coast GRC
2015 GE: PAP 78.57%

PAP: Minster for Communication S Iswarann, Foo Mee Har, Minister for Social and Family Development Desmond Lee, Ang Wei Neng and newcomer Rachel Ong

PSP: Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Mr Jeffrey Khoo, Ms Hazel Poa, Mr Leong Mun Wai, Mr Nadarajah Loganathan


What to look out for

Homecoming 
Dr Tan is an ex PAP MP with one of the best performing election result. His last GE in 2001 had 88% for Ayer Rajah. Ayer Rajah had since been absorbed into West Coast GRC. He is also known to have narrowly lost the Presidential election by less than 0.5% margin. This time he will lead PSP into the arena against PAP. 

Heavyweights incumbents
2 Ministers had joined the incumbent team to strengthen its core. Incumbent Minister S Iswarann is joined by Minister Desmond Lee. 

The wall is high to climb even for the popular Dr Tan. Firstly, the size of the GRC is much bigger than Ayer Rajah. Secondly, West Coast has always been a PAP stronghold with over 78.57% votes on the last GE. Nonetheless, he holds a wildcard Mr Lee Hsien Yang, the brother of PM Lee in his deck.

Prediction: PAP by a hair.

Sengkang GRC
PAP: Ng Chee Meng, Amrin Amin, Lam Pin Min, Raymond Lye Hoong Yip
WP: He Ting Ru, Louis Chua Keng Wee, Jamus Jerome Lim Chee Wui, Raeesah Begum Bte Farid Khan

What to look out for

New Kid on the Block
This is a newly craved constituency that is made up of single seats of Sengkang West and Punggol East as well as Sengkang Central ward of Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC. WP had won Punggol East before and looks to repeat its feat in this newly formed GRC

It may be a new GRC with WP roots, but the odds are against the opposition. Base on Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC showing at the last election where it won 72.89% of the votes, it may be hard to overcome this benchmark. However, WP may divert attention away from East Coast GRC to this new GRC. After Aljunied, this is the next best chance to get another GRC. A concentrated attack makes the final outcome unpredictable. 

Prediction: WIldcard 

SMC
Hougang SMC


2015 GE: WP Png Eng Huat 57.69%

WP: Dennis Tan
PAP: Lee Hong Chuang

What to look out for 

Stronghold
The stronghold of WP should remain a safe bet. However, this year the charge will be lead by Dennis Tan instead of the incumbent Mr Png who had stepped down. Dennis Tan previously contested in Fengshan and did well enough to secure a seat in parliament as Non-Constituency MP


This will be the second time PAP Lee challenges the stronghold. Would it be second time lucky?

Prediction: WP


Bukit Panjang SMC


2015 GE : PAP Teo Ho Pin (68.38%)

PAP: Liang Eng Hwa
SDP: Paul Tambyah

What to look out for

Infectious Diseases President-Elect
SDP chairman is considered a heavyweight given his credentials. As President-Elect of the International Society of Infectious Diseases, a man of his calibre would be most welcoming during this pandemic. As chairman of SDP, he holds the key to SDP route to Parliament.

Veteran, new ground
Meanwhile, PAP Liang is a political veteran. He was a serving MP since 2006 and had served in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC. Bukit Panjang is considered a new stomping ground for him as the incumbent Dr Teo had retired. 

A credible opposition heavyweight vs an incumbent backbencher. This should tilt the odds more evenly.  

Prediction: Tough call

Special mention

East Coast GRC 

2015 GE: PAP 60.73%

Surprise Entry
DPM Heng Swee Keat who is widely acknowledged to be the next PM in charge of the 4G ministers. He had switched camps from Tampines to helm East Coast GRC. East Coast GRC was predicted to be one of the hotly contested GRC as it was the worse performing GRC for the incumbent back in 2015. With DPM Heng leading the charge, all hopes of the opposition doing an Aljunied seem dash.

The challenge for PAP now is to ensure a convincing win at East Coast GRC. This will be the mandate for both party and future party leader for the next lap.

4 New SMC
Realistically, oppositions stand a higher chance at SMC vs GRC. However, save for Hougang, the closely fought SMC had been merged with GRC. For 2020, there are 4 new SMC introduced. They are Marymount SMC, Punggol West SMC, Yio Chu Kang SMC, Kebun Bahru. However, without a prominent opposition, it would be a surprise if any of the above seats are taken by the opposition.  


Final Tally
These are the 5 hotspots that will be closely watched. While there may be battles elsewhere, it will be tough for the opposition to gain much traction given the current climate.

With the current Covid19 situation, analysts are expecting the voters not to rock the boat. In fact, some had predicted a win of as high as 75%. We are a bit more conservative and think the range may be at 61-66%. 

Regardless of the prediction, do note that most electoral boundaries had changes made. Due to these changes, results can still be unpredictable. We cannot wait for the fireworks to be over on July 10 and look forward to a new lap in Singapore's history.

Good luck to all candidates!

Source: Election Department

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