Unique Tests for Covid19 Increase Week on Week.



93,000 FW cleared in a week!

A news report from Today claimed that there were 180,000 FW have either recovered or tested to be free of Covid19.  It stated that as of July 6, the numbers in dorms cleared of the virus had increase from 87,000 the week prior to 180,000 within a week. That is a whopping 93,000 cleared in a week or about an average of 13285 FW cleared per day.

The numbers seem a little tad high, so we decide  to see if it tally to the official figures provided by MOH from 

Total Tests - The number of tests conducted
Unique Tests - The number of People tested


Analysis

Total Swab Test Done: 757,746
Total Unique Person Swabbed: 414,396



Total Swab Test Done: 866,414
Total Unique Person Swabbed: 467,008

Average Swab Tests: 108668/8 =13582
Average Unique Person Swabbed: 52612/8 = 6576
Infection Rate: 1524 /52612




Daily Covid19 cases 
29 Jun 2020: 202
30 June 2020: 246
1 July 2020: 215
2 Jul 2020: 188
3 Jul 2020: 169
4 Jul 2020: 185
5 July 2020: 136
6 July 2020: 184

Average Swab Tests: 108668/8 =13582
Average Unique Person Swabbed: 52612/8 = 6576
Infection Rate: 1524 /52612 =2.89%


Discharge Rate (29 Jun to 6 July)
29 Jun: 477
30 Jun: 515
1 Jul: 511
2 Jul: 418
3 Jul 340
4 Jul: 348
5 Jul: 324
6 Jul: 276

Total Discharge: 3209


Observations
We used the data here to compare to our previous analysis.
From the numbers, the following can be observed

1) Average Total Swab Tests per day is similar to the previous observation at 13K per day

2) Average Unique Person Swab Test has increased to 6576 per day. 

3) The result implied that the average swab test per person is about 2 per day

4) The infection rate has been reduced to 2.89%

5) Base on the public stats available from MOH, the total number of discharge cases were only 3209 for the 8 days from 29 Jun to 5 Jul. Add the number to the total number of unique persons tested, it will be at 55821. That is a far cry from the 93K stated in the report.

Upon further investigation, there might be a mistake in the numbers stated in Today's report.  Another news report dated June 26  by Straits Times indicated that 120,0000 workers had tested negative for the virus or recovered as of June 23. That would imply a recovery of 60 K workers over a 2 weeks period. This is more realistic compared to the 93K as reported by Today.

This highlights that the interpretation of news could differ, depending on what you read. The figures might be correct, but the way information is provided could be misleading. For the record, at a rate of 60K per 2 weeks,  the balance of approximately 140K workers could be cleared by the end of the month. 

That would be a relief for Singapore as the daily high numbers are creating a COVID fatigue among the local.

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