Covid19 Testing : Total Tests increase to average 13K but Unique Tests falls by 35%

Last week we had a significant fall in the total number of cases in Singapore.

A recent report stated that an average of 11000-12000 cases were tested daily. If that is the case, it would imply infection rates had fallen. With the published numbers from MOH, let do a quick analysis.

Total Tests - The number of tests conducted

Unique Tests - The number of People tested

Analysis

Total Swab Test Done: 576 189

Total Unique Person Swabbed: 340 894

Total Swab Test Done: 684 359

Total Unique Person Swabbed: 376 749

June 15-22

Total Number of Days: 8

Average Swab Tests: 108170/8 =13521

Average Unique Person Swabbed: 35855/8 = 4481

Infection Rate: 1709/35855 = 4.7 %

Observations

We used the data here to compare to our previous analysis.

From the numbers, the following can be observed

1) Average Total Swab Tests per day has increased by about 30% from 10937 to 13421 per day

2) Average Unique Person Swab Test has reduced by 35% from 6991 to 4481 per day 

3) The result implied that the average swab test per person has increased from less than 2 to  3 per day.  This probably signalled more conservative testing for the week.

4) Even though the overall numbers reduced from 2967 to 1709, infection rates only fall from 5.3% to 4.7%.  This implied that the lower number is probably due to lesser unique persons tested rather than a fall in infection rate.

Phase 2 

On days leading up to phase 2, infection rates have not really fallen off the cliff. Nonetheless, we are on the way to recovery. It just may take a little while longer than the numbers suggested.