Aug 18 : Safe to Relax or Continue Restrictions?



2 more weeks and Aug 18 is upon us.

The question is on everyone's mind. Will the Phase 2 HA restrictions continue or will we revert back to Phase 3 HA?  

According to experts, we are ready to move ahead with Phase 3. To many, having close to 100 cases a day does not seem to justify that. Since we are halfway there, let's take a NON EXPERT view of the situation based on the Aug 4 report.

Number of Cases

Source: MOH

If we look purely at the numbers, it looks like we had peaked 2 weeks ago with the number of cases hitting a high of 182 on 20 Jul. Since then, the numbers had tampered down. 

If you look closer, the worrisome trend is that unlinked cases continue to hover around 30-40 cases per day. With unlinked cases, it would mean that the spread among the community is wider. Additionally, we have 112 Active clusters as of Aug 4. On 20 Jul, there were only 26.

% Vaccinated

Source: MOH


The % Vaccination has increased steadily. Currently, 64% of the total population is vaccinated. This is deemed as positive if we are going to open up.

Source: MOH


The % of vaccination for older residents are also encouraging. There are 74% of 70 YO and above vaccinated with over 80% for 45 to 69. Nonetheless, this also implies that 1 in 5 older residents are not vaccinated.


Source: MOH


Base on the stats, there are about 1 % of fully vaccinated requiring Oxygen or under intensive care. Compared to 6% in completely unvaccinated cases, this implies that vaccination works. So far there are no death reported for vaccinated cases.


Oxygen Supplementation and Intensive Care


Source: MOH

Of all the charts, we think this is of utmost importance. This would indicate the severity of the spread as well as affecting our hospital capacity. The number of people requiring oxygen supplementation and are in intensive care has jumped over the past week. A week ago, there is an average of 20+ for oxygen supplementation and 2 for intensive care. It has now doubled to 42 requiring oxygen and 7 in intensive care.

Base on the numbers, despite the falling cases daily, the severity of these cases may be increasing.


Source: MOH

2 things stood out from the charts. The first is that the majority of cases are above 60+ years old. The other is that Fully vaccinated cases are included on the list. 2 Fully Vaccinated cases are also in ICU. This would lead to the questioning of the effectiveness of the vaccine. Without additional details (eg. Types of vaccines taken, the time when it was taken, pre-existing illness) we cannot conclude if the vaccination has not prevented the infection.


Source: MOH


Cases in Children


Aug 4

Another chart that we are looking closely at is the infection on children, in particular for those under 12 as they are not vaccinated.

As per the chart, there was an increment of 7 for this age group. Unfortunately, as MOE does not release information on school infections, we are unable to confirm if these are school-going children or children infected due to household relations.

Aug 3



Conclusion
It is a mixed bag of numbers. On one hand, vaccination is increasing and daily count reducing. On the other hand, the number of cases that needs extra treatment such as oxygen supplementation, the number of clusters and unlinked cases has been increased. Moreover, the cases that needed extra attention include vaccinated people.

Is it time to move to Phase 3?

Perhaps, but it may mean a different Phase 3 than we know before. One that could favour the vaccinated vs the non vaccinated.

PS: We are NOT medical experts. Just self-trained chartists who interpret charts as it is. 











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