The spike of COVID19 in Dormitories : The Possible Scenerios




Yesterday we had 1369 cases reported from dormitories

To put things in perspective, before the Circuit Breaker started, we had confirmed 1375 cases over the past 3 months. To say the number of confirmed cases is a lot is an understatement.



The situation at the dormitories had been a worrisome trend. Base on the latest released figures, 6075 Work Permit Holders residing in dormitories have caught the virus and another 339 of Work Permit Holders cases detected residing outside the dormitories.




Source: MOH


Implication

More Dormitories to isolate?
Currently, 18 dormitories our of 43 dormitories are gazetted as isolation areas. There is a chance that there will be more as aggressive testing may uncovered clusters in other Dormitories.

The full list of Dormitories as follows. The ones in yellow are designated as Isolation areas.

Name of dormitory
Name of operator
Address
Keppel Housing Pte Ltd
540 Bukit Batok Street 23, Singapore 659553
Sembcorp Marine Integrated Yard Pte Ltd
Admiralty Road West, Singapore 759956
Averic Pte Ltd
2D Jalan Papan, Singapore 619415
Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd
3 Kian Teck Lane, Singapore 627844
PSA Tanjong Pagar Complex Pte Ltd
81 Brani Terminal Avenue, Singapore 098323
Capital Development (Tuas) Pte Ltd
6 Tuas South Street 15, Singapore 636906
Keppel Housing Pte Ltd
11 Penjuru Walk, Singapore 608541
Maxi Consultancy Pte Ltd
60 Boundary Close, Singapore 567730
Centurion / Lian Beng (Papan) Pte Ltd
5C Jalan Papan, Singapore 619420
S11 Capital Investments Pte Ltd
80 Tanah Merah Coast Road, Singapore 498736
Vobis Enterprise Pte Ltd
51 Admiralty Road West, Singapore 757443
Vobis Enterprise Pte Ltd
49 Admiralty Road West, Singapore 757444
Homestay Management Pte Ltd
39 Kaki Bukit Avenue 3, Singapore 415920
Hulett Construction (S) Pte Ltd
20 Senoko Drive, Singapore 758207
Cushman & Wakefield Facilities & Engineering (S) Limited
529 Upper Jurong Road, Singapore 638355
Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd
58 Penjuru Place, Singapore 608562
Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd
36 Penjuru Place, Singapore 608560
Averic Capital Management Pte Ltd
26 Kian Teck Avenue, Singapore 628920
Joint Shipyard Management Services Pte Ltd
30 Kian Teck Avenue, Singapore 628921
Vobis Enterprise Pte Ltd
12 Kranji Road, Singapore 739522
Cushman & Wakefield Facilities & Engineering (S) Limited
460 Mandai Road, Singapore 729760
Draco Venture Pte Ltd
51 North Coast Avenue, Singapore 756992
Tee Up Dormitory Pte Ltd
8 Seletar North Link, Singapore 797455
S11 Granuity Management Pte Ltd
2 Seletar North Link, Singapore 797601
PSA Tanjong Pagar Complex Pte Ltd
33 Harbour Drive, Singapore 117606
Jurong Shipyard Pte Ltd
80 Tuas South Boulevard, Singapore 637051
D Wall Pte Ltd
MK31 on Lot 04962N at Changi Coast Road
TT Trading Resource Pte Ltd
69H Tuas South Avenue 1 Singapore 637509
Hallton Investment Pte Ltd
12 Shaw Road, Singapore 367951
C&W Services (S) Pte Ltd
16 Tuas Avenue 1 #07-201 Singapore 639529
TG25 Pte Ltd
500 Old Choa Chu Kang Road, Singapore 698924
TPD Facilities Management Pte Ltd
2 Tampines Place, Singapore 528821
Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd
25 Kaki Bukit Road 3, Singapore 415815
Capital Development Pte Ltd
19A Toh Guan Road East, Singapore 608567
Nexus Point Investments Pte Ltd
1 Tuas South Street 12, Singapore 636946
TS Management Services Pte Ltd
70 Tuas South Avenue 1, Singapore 637285
Westlite Dormitory Toh Guan Pte Ltd
18 Toh Guan Road East, Singapore 608591
Westlite Juniper (Mandai) Pte Ltd
23 Mandai Estate, Singapore 729937
Lian Beng / Centurion (Dormitory) Pte Ltd
34 Mandai Estate, Singapore 729940
Westlite Dormitory (Woodlands) Pte Ltd
2 Woodlands Sector 2, Singapore 737723
WLD Facilities Management Pte Ltd
27 Woodlands Sector 1, Singapore 738252
Nichefield Pte Ltd
50 Woodlands Industrial Park E4, Singapore 757388
Civil Tech Management Pte Ltd
190 Woodlands Industrial Park E7, Singapore 757178


Overwhelming of Hospital Facilities?
MOH
 Currently, there are 3397 cases hospitalised. Base on the MOH 2019 figures, we have a capacity of 13307 beds excluding vacancies in Psychiatric Hospitals. The current hospitalisation rate is at 25%.  Since there are other patients being treated for other medical condition, The hospitals will not be able to maximise 100% capacity just for COVIF-19 cases.

MOH
Thankfully, we are able to send those milder cases to Community Isolation facilities for monitoring. This would be great IF the new cases are mild in symptoms. Despite the high numbers of cases, we only have 23 in intensive care. Given that this is probably the most critical stage, the capacity to handle severe cases is still available at this stage.


Bigger Numbers?


With aggressive testing of the Foreign Workers to segregate the well from those with COVID-19, it would be expected that numbers to continue to be high for the coming days. There are a total of 250K-300K Foreign Workers in Singapore.

From past reports, S11 Dormitory@ Punggol, Westlife Toh Guan and Sungei Tengah Lodge have a total of 45,000 foreign workers house in the premise. Till date, the number of workers infected from these three dorms are as follow


  • S11 Dormitory@Punggol: 1508 cases
  • Westlite Toh Guan: 146 cases
  • Sungei Tengah Lodge : 521 Cases
*Figures as of Apr 20

Using this as a gauge, the total infection rate is about 4.8%. If we project it to a population size of 250,000, it would imply a possible 12,000 infection. Given that we had identified 6075 carriers to date, we are halfway there. On the flip side, with this aggressive testing, we might slow down the spread as the healthy are moved away from the epicentre.

The curve may find its peak soon.

Will MAY4 Circuit Breaker be extended?

The general community spread is in better shape since CB started. Average transmission had reduced from the 40s to 20s over the past 3 days. While the is encouraging, the numbers from the Dormitories might be the determining factor if the CB would to extend beyond May 4. If the numbers do not show tampering AND hospitalisation cases remain high, there might be a possibility that the CB will be extended.

This is to prevent stretching the current resources as removal of CB measures would probably lead to an increase in local community cases. If the cases were to spread to facilities like Old Folk's Home, the situation may be further complicated as this group would be the ones that would most likely need the hospital facilities for treatment.

While we would like  CB to end as soon as possible. It is best not to rush into a decision. If closing for another 2 weeks or so would put us in a better position in the longer run, we should do it regardless.

What's the next big cluster?
The number of FW affected is about 5 % of the total population. It is also the most vulnerable group in terms of possible spread due to the living condition. The other areas to worry are nursing homes and schools when they reopen. However, these can be isolated fairly quickly and would not have the same magnitude as this mega cluster. If we can suppress this, Singapore might come out of this COVID19 situation at a better footing.

In the meantime, let us not be disheartened by the topline numbers. The fact that the authorities had been transparent with the figures and actions, means that we are assured that they are working on stopping the spread. Instead of adding to the woes, let's do our part for the next few weeks. Stay at home and flatten the community curve. The more we distance ourselves, the lesser chance we will get infected.



No comments:

Post a Comment