The spike of COVID19 in Dormitories : The Possible Scenerios

Yesterday we had 1369 cases reported from dormitories

To put things in perspective, before the Circuit Breaker started, we had confirmed 1375 cases over the past 3 months. To say the number of confirmed cases is a lot is an understatement.

The situation at the dormitories had been a worrisome trend. Base on the latest released figures, 6075 Work Permit Holders residing in dormitories have caught the virus and another 339 of Work Permit Holders cases detected residing outside the dormitories.

Source: MOH

Implication

More Dormitories to isolate?
Currently, 18 dormitories our of 43 dormitories are gazetted as isolation areas. There is a chance that there will be more as aggressive testing may uncovered clusters in other Dormitories.

The full list of Dormitories as follows. The ones in yellow are designated as Isolation areas.

Name of dormitory	Name of operator	Address
Acacia Lodge	Keppel Housing Pte Ltd	540 Bukit Batok Street 23, Singapore 659553
Alaunia Lodge	Sembcorp Marine Integrated Yard Pte Ltd	Admiralty Road West, Singapore 759956
Avery Lodge	Averic Pte Ltd	2D Jalan Papan, Singapore 619415
Blue Stars Dormitory	Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd	3 Kian Teck Lane, Singapore 627844
Brani Residence	PSA Tanjong Pagar Complex Pte Ltd	81 Brani Terminal Avenue, Singapore 098323
CDPL Tuas Dormitory	Capital Development (Tuas) Pte Ltd	6 Tuas South Street 15, Singapore 636906
Cassia @ Penjuru	Keppel Housing Pte Ltd	11 Penjuru Walk, Singapore 608541
Central Staff Apartments	Maxi Consultancy Pte Ltd	60 Boundary Close, Singapore 567730
Centurion - Lian Beng (Papan) Pte Ltd	Centurion / Lian Beng (Papan) Pte Ltd	5C Jalan Papan, Singapore 619420
Changi Lodge 2	S11 Capital Investments Pte Ltd	80 Tanah Merah Coast Road, Singapore 498736
Cochrane Lodge 1	Vobis Enterprise Pte Ltd	51 Admiralty Road West, Singapore 757443
Cochrane Lodge 2	Vobis Enterprise Pte Ltd	49 Admiralty Road West, Singapore 757444
Homestay Lodge	Homestay Management Pte Ltd	39 Kaki Bukit Avenue 3, Singapore 415920
Hulett Dormitory	Hulett Construction (S) Pte Ltd	20 Senoko Drive, Singapore 758207
Jurong Apartments	Cushman & Wakefield Facilities & Engineering (S) Limited	529 Upper Jurong Road, Singapore 638355
Jurong Penjuru Dormitory 1	Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd	58 Penjuru Place, Singapore 608562
Jurong Penjuru Dormitory 2	Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd	36 Penjuru Place, Singapore 608560
Kian Teck Dormitory	Averic Capital Management Pte Ltd	26 Kian Teck Avenue, Singapore 628920
Kian Teck Hostel	Joint Shipyard Management Services Pte Ltd	30 Kian Teck Avenue, Singapore 628921
Kranji Lodge 1	Vobis Enterprise Pte Ltd	12 Kranji Road, Singapore 739522
Mandai Lodge 1	Cushman & Wakefield Facilities & Engineering (S) Limited	460 Mandai Road, Singapore 729760
North Coast Lodge	Draco Venture Pte Ltd	51 North Coast Avenue, Singapore 756992
PPT Lodge 1A	Tee Up Dormitory Pte Ltd	8 Seletar North Link, Singapore 797455
PPT Lodge 1B	S11 Granuity Management Pte Ltd	2 Seletar North Link, Singapore 797601
Pasir Panjang Residence	PSA Tanjong Pagar Complex Pte Ltd	33 Harbour Drive, Singapore 117606
SCM Tuas Lodge	Jurong Shipyard Pte Ltd	80 Tuas South Boulevard, Singapore 637051
SSKBJV Package 1 Workers’ Dormitory	D Wall Pte Ltd	MK31 on Lot 04962N at Changi Coast Road
Seatown Dormitory (FCD)	TT Trading Resource Pte Ltd	69H Tuas South Avenue 1 Singapore 637509
Shaw Lodge Dormitory	Hallton Investment Pte Ltd	12 Shaw Road, Singapore 367951
Space @ Tuas Apartment	C&W Services (S) Pte Ltd	16 Tuas Avenue 1 #07-201 Singapore 639529
Sungei Tengah Lodge	TG25 Pte Ltd	500 Old Choa Chu Kang Road, Singapore 698924
Tampines Dormitory	TPD Facilities Management Pte Ltd	2 Tampines Place, Singapore 528821
The Leo	Labourtel Management Corporation Pte Ltd	25 Kaki Bukit Road 3, Singapore 415815
Toh Guan Dormitory	Capital Development Pte Ltd	19A Toh Guan Road East, Singapore 608567
Tuas South Dormitory	Nexus Point Investments Pte Ltd	1 Tuas South Street 12, Singapore 636946
Tuas View Dormitory	TS Management Services Pte Ltd	70 Tuas South Avenue 1, Singapore 637285
Westlite Dormitory (Toh Guan) Pte Ltd	Westlite Dormitory Toh Guan Pte Ltd	18 Toh Guan Road East, Singapore 608591
Westlite Juniper	Westlite Juniper (Mandai) Pte Ltd	23 Mandai Estate, Singapore 729937
Westlite Mandai Dormitory	Lian Beng / Centurion (Dormitory) Pte Ltd	34 Mandai Estate, Singapore 729940
Westlite Woodlands Dormitory	Westlite Dormitory (Woodlands) Pte Ltd	2 Woodlands Sector 2, Singapore 737723
Woodlands Dormitory	WLD Facilities Management Pte Ltd	27 Woodlands Sector 1, Singapore 738252
Woodlands Lodge 1	Nichefield Pte Ltd	50 Woodlands Industrial Park E4, Singapore 757388
Woodlands Lodge 2	Civil Tech Management Pte Ltd	190 Woodlands Industrial Park E7, Singapore 757178

Overwhelming of Hospital Facilities?

MOH

 Currently, there are 3397 cases hospitalised. Base on the MOH 2019 figures, we have a capacity of 13307 beds excluding vacancies in Psychiatric Hospitals. The current hospitalisation rate is at 25%.  Since there are other patients being treated for other medical condition, The hospitals will not be able to maximise 100% capacity just for COVIF-19 cases.

MOH

Thankfully, we are able to send those milder cases to Community Isolation facilities for monitoring. This would be great IF the new cases are mild in symptoms. Despite the high numbers of cases, we only have 23 in intensive care. Given that this is probably the most critical stage, the capacity to handle severe cases is still available at this stage.


Bigger Numbers?

With aggressive testing of the Foreign Workers to segregate the well from those with COVID-19, it would be expected that numbers to continue to be high for the coming days. There are a total of 250K-300K Foreign Workers in Singapore.

From past reports, S11 Dormitory@ Punggol, Westlife Toh Guan and Sungei Tengah Lodge have a total of 45,000 foreign workers house in the premise. Till date, the number of workers infected from these three dorms are as follow

• S11 Dormitory@Punggol: 1508 cases
• Westlite Toh Guan: 146 cases
• Sungei Tengah Lodge : 521 Cases

*Figures as of Apr 20

Using this as a gauge, the total infection rate is about 4.8%. If we project it to a population size of 250,000, it would imply a possible 12,000 infection. Given that we had identified 6075 carriers to date, we are halfway there. On the flip side, with this aggressive testing, we might slow down the spread as the healthy are moved away from the epicentre.

The curve may find its peak soon.

Will MAY4 Circuit Breaker be extended?

The general community spread is in better shape since CB started. Average transmission had reduced from the 40s to 20s over the past 3 days. While the is encouraging, the numbers from the Dormitories might be the determining factor if the CB would to extend beyond May 4. If the numbers do not show tampering AND hospitalisation cases remain high, there might be a possibility that the CB will be extended.

This is to prevent stretching the current resources as removal of CB measures would probably lead to an increase in local community cases. If the cases were to spread to facilities like Old Folk's Home, the situation may be further complicated as this group would be the ones that would most likely need the hospital facilities for treatment.

While we would like  CB to end as soon as possible. It is best not to rush into a decision. If closing for another 2 weeks or so would put us in a better position in the longer run, we should do it regardless.

What's the next big cluster?
The number of FW affected is about 5 % of the total population. It is also the most vulnerable group in terms of possible spread due to the living condition. The other areas to worry are nursing homes and schools when they reopen. However, these can be isolated fairly quickly and would not have the same magnitude as this mega cluster. If we can suppress this, Singapore might come out of this COVID19 situation at a better footing.

In the meantime, let us not be disheartened by the topline numbers. The fact that the authorities had been transparent with the figures and actions, means that we are assured that they are working on stopping the spread. Instead of adding to the woes, let's do our part for the next few weeks. Stay at home and flatten the community curve. The more we distance ourselves, the lesser chance we will get infected.