Phase1 Week 1 Report Card : Will we go to Phase 2 ?



We passed a full week in Phase 1!


How have we fared during the week for Covid19?


Number of Cases
We compare the data from the week prior to the end of the Circuit Breaker and the first week of Phase one.




Observations
Community cases had jumped on the first week of Phase 1
Community cases were at 23 for the week prior to Phase 1. It jumped 160% to 60 cases. Most of the cases are as a result of surveillance testing and proactive testings.



Dorms cases remain high
Although Dorm numbers are slightly down, there was a day when the numbers of the test were significantly lower. At current rates, it still remains high with 97% new cases from dorms.


Unlink cases jumped
Unlink cases had increased by 78% from 14 to 25. This is the result of surveillance tests. 
Surveillance test or proactive testing had been done for screening of workers in essential services as well as tests to staff and students above 12 who are diagnosed with Acute Respiratory Infections ( since June 2)

Overall numbers are down
Overall numbers are down by 10%  from 3369 to 3029. It is interesting to note that there were reports of reduced dorms testing midweek. As a result, the drop is to be taken with a pinch of salt.

 

Would Phase 2 be on schedule? 
Phase 2 is slated to start by end of June. Looking at the numbers alone, popular opinions state that Phase 2 might be delayed. Nonetheless, it was expected that the numbers are to increase once Phase 1 kicks in. If this is so, there should be a buffer provided for the new cases. With this in mind, Phase 2 might still continue at the stipulated timeframe. However, do not expect everything to reopen at once when Phase 2 is announced. Instead, we might be looking at a staggered Phase 2.

Livelihood vs Lives
While we have to be prudent, the economy would have to open up. It is a battle for livelihood or lives. Unfortunately, they are intertwined. To save lives, livelihood has to be affected. To affect livelihood, might lead to lives lost due to the financial fallout. Either way, it is a difficult balancing act for policymakers.  Unless the numbers escalate next week to above 100 on a daily basis, we think Phase 2 would still proceed.

Low Death Rate and Intensive Care Rate
There are 25 deaths out of the confirmed 38K+ cases with only 3 in intensive care. While the confirmed cases are high, about half of them are asymptomatic.  To put things in perspective, the rate of death is at 0.06%, less than the global rate of 5.6% . 

Election Cues
Posts on Elections measures are showing up on mainstream newspaper. Understandably, the election can only occur if we are in Phase 2. The articles provide a strong hint that planning for Phase 2 is in place.

Given the circumstances, unless one can come up with a solution, we should move on with the policies implemented. It would probably mean some sacrifice on an individual basis. From wearing a tracking device to being subjected to surveillance testing, we had to give something up in return for a sense of normalcy.

The question is will you be willing to sacrifice when the time comes?


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